Migrate Amazon Connect TEI study to the Mercury Notebook Pattern

studies/202602_AmazonConnect -> studies/202602_TEI_Amazon_Connect,
rebuilt as pattern Variant 4 (TEI composite reproduction):

- teicalc/ self-contained engine (stdlib-only): Forrester's tables as
  the never-edited verbatim anchor, NPV/ROI/payback + risk adjustment
  transplanted from core/calculations, ClientDrivers overlay (contacts/
  agents/fixed driver map, growth re-base, identity at composite scale),
  scenario stress with core-identical semantics
- one deliverable notebook (business_case.ipynb): widget-pair sidebar
  drivers, published-vs-overlay KPI columns, cash-flow/waterfall/scenario
  charts, verification gate, backstage JSON data appendix
- gate + tests reproduce the published totals within PDF rounding:
  NPV $78.7M / ROI 342% / payback <6 months (engine $78,713,492 /
  342.48% / 0.7 months); 27 study tests, headless nbconvert green,
  stage simulation leak-free, exports carry the appendix
- old Athena workflow (00_provision..04_export, config.py, seed_data.py)
  deleted; git history preserves it; root test fixture repointed to
  teicalc.anchor
- docs: study README rewritten; root README points new studies at
  template/MercuryNotebook; pattern doc stale ctm-token-calculator paths
  now cite studies/202607_CTM_GenesysCX; Variant 4 cites this study as
  its realized reference

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-07-09 14:29:46 -04:00
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"""
The verbatim anchor — Forrester *Total Economic Impact™ Of Amazon Connect*
(February 2026, commissioned by AWS).
VERBATIM, do not edit. These are Forrester's published composite-organization
tables and financial summary, transplanted unchanged from the study PDF
(``docs/202602_TEI Report Amazon Connect.pdf``). Client personalization
lives in :mod:`teicalc.overlay`; scenario stress lives in
:mod:`teicalc.scenarios` — both deep-copy, neither mutates this record.
Rows keep Forrester's own year-index keys (``"1"``/``"2"``/``"3"``);
:mod:`teicalc.model` maps them to calendar years (20262028). Values are
*nominal* (pre-risk-adjustment); the risk factor is stored per row and
applied by the model (benefits ×(1rf), costs ×(1+rf), per the TEI
methodology).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
#: 3-year nominal benefit cashflows — 🟢 published.
BENEFITS_VERBATIM: list[dict] = [
{
"field_key": "ai_contact_resolution",
"table": "benefits",
"label": "AI-driven contact resolution efficiency",
"category": "Productivity",
"year_values": {"1": 13_911_040, "2": 23_932_480, "3": 37_797_760},
"risk_adjustment": 0.15,
"notes": (
"PDF Section At/Atr. Composite: 20M annual contacts, 30% YoY "
"growth, 75% calls, 10-min AHT with legacy. Connect drops AHT "
"12% Y1 and shifts traffic to chat/self-service. 80% "
"productivity recapture. Risk adj 15% (legacy performance, "
"implementation depth, integration scope, growth)."
),
},
{
"field_key": "ai_content_sentiment",
"table": "benefits",
"label": "AI-powered content and sentiment analysis savings",
"category": "Productivity",
"year_values": {"1": 4_586_620, "2": 5_358_412, "3": 6_291_680},
"risk_adjustment": 0.15,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Bt/Btr. Auto post-contact summaries reclaim ~60s "
"per call; QA scaled from 13% to 100%; supervisors freed from "
"manual review. Risk adj 15%."
),
},
{
"field_key": "ai_forecasting_supervision",
"table": "benefits",
"label": "AI-enabled forecasting, agent scheduling, and supervision",
"category": "Productivity",
"year_values": {"1": 6_651_680, "2": 9_133_760, "3": 12_391_712},
"risk_adjustment": 0.15,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Ct/Ctr. ML-WFM yields 5% agent FTE optimization "
"and supervisors managing 20% more agents (10→12). 80% "
"productivity recapture. Risk adj 15%."
),
},
{
"field_key": "data_driven_profit_lift",
"table": "benefits",
"label": "Data-driven profit lift with increased conversion",
"category": "Revenue",
"year_values": {"1": 1_200_000, "2": 1_560_000, "3": 2_028_000},
"risk_adjustment": 0.20,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Dt/Dtr. Composite revenue $10B Y1 (+30% YoY); "
"5% from outbound contact-center marketing; conversion lifts "
"from 10% to 12% (+20% relative); 12% operating margin. "
"Risk adj 20%."
),
},
{
"field_key": "legacy_solution_savings",
"table": "benefits",
"label": "Legacy solution cost savings",
"category": "Cost Savings",
"year_values": {"1": 6_177_600, "2": 8_030_880, "3": 10_440_144},
"risk_adjustment": 0.20,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Et/Etr. Avg legacy license $180/agent-month × "
"(agents+supervisors) × 12, plus 30% overhead for infra & "
"third-party tools. Risk adj 20%."
),
},
]
#: Costs include an ``initial`` (year-0, undiscounted) component for
#: implementation. Cost risk adjustments are applied *upward*. 🟢 published.
COSTS_VERBATIM: list[dict] = [
{
"field_key": "amazon_connect_usage",
"table": "costs",
"label": "Amazon Connect usage cost",
"category": "Subscription",
"initial": 0,
"year_values": {"1": 6_456_448, "2": 7_951_164, "3": 9_832_961},
"risk_adjustment": 0.05,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Ft/Ftr. Telephony $0.0106/min + Unlimited AI "
"$0.0380/min on minutes that reach an agent, plus chat at "
"$0.0100/message (10 messages/chat). Risk adj 5%."
),
},
{
"field_key": "implementation_migration",
"table": "costs",
"label": "Implementation and migration cost",
"category": "Implementation",
"initial": 1_087_500,
"year_values": {"1": 188_333, "2": 188_333, "3": 0},
"risk_adjustment": 0.10,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Gt/Gtr. 6-month initial migration: 5 internal "
"FTE @ $115k + $800k pro-services. Y1/Y2 M&A integrations: 2 "
"months × 2 FTE + $150k pro-services. Risk adj 10%."
),
},
{
"field_key": "ongoing_management",
"table": "costs",
"label": "Ongoing management",
"category": "Operations",
"initial": 0,
"year_values": {"1": 256_200, "2": 187_200, "3": 187_200},
"risk_adjustment": 0.15,
"notes": (
"PDF Section Ht/Htr. Y1: 5 IT/PM @ 30% × $115k + 5 business "
"users @ 30% × $55,800. Y2/Y3: 3 IT/PM @ 30% + 5 business "
"users @ 30%. Risk adj 15%."
),
},
]
#: Composite-organization drivers — 🟢 published (PDF "Composite Organization").
ASSUMPTIONS: dict = {
"agents_fte": 2_000,
"supervisors_fte": 200,
"annual_contacts_y1": 20_000_000,
"growth_rate": 0.30,
"call_share": 0.75,
"aht_legacy_minutes": 10,
"agent_salary": 45_760,
"supervisor_salary": 55_800,
"discount_rate": 0.10,
"analysis_years": 3,
}
#: The PDF's Financial Summary — the gate's reproduction target. 🟢 published.
#: The engine reproduces these to within Forrester's own table rounding
#: (benefits PV lands $223 low; costs PV $0.22 low).
PUBLISHED: dict = {
"benefits_pv": 101_696_791,
"costs_pv": 22_983_076,
"npv": 78_713_715,
"roi_pct": 342,
"payback_months_max": 6, # published as "<6 months"
"discount_rate": 0.10,
"analysis_years": 3,
}